Trump's North Korea Sabre-Rattling Nothing But A Show: Russian Analyst
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – A senior Russian political analyst said it is unlikely that US President Donald Trump orders an attack on North Korea, stressing that his sabre-rattling rhetoric against Pyongyang is more for show and aims to deflect world’s attention away from his political problems at home.
“This is possible, but we believe it is unlikely because of the huge North Korean infantry strength on the border with South Korea, with which they would likely invade,” Charles Bausman said in an interview with the Tasnim News Agency.
“Therefore, we believe that this saber-rattling is more for show, designed to distract attention from Trump's domestic political problems, and run out the clock on the congressional hearing on Russian influence in the US elections,” the analyst added.
Bausman is the editor and publisher of Russia Insider. He worked for the American NBC News in Moscow in the late 1980s. He is a regular commentator for various news channels like Russia Today (RT).
The following is the full text of the interview:
Tasnim: According to a recent report published by The National Interest, evidence is everywhere apparent that China and Russia are growing closer by the day. Some of the latest examples of their geostrategic coalescing are the large Chinese delegation at Russia’s recent Arctic conference in Archangelsk, China’s increasingly vocal support for Russia’s intervention in Syria, as well as the common refrain in both Russia and China that both powers are strongly opposed to US deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system into South Korea. On the other hand, there have been some efforts by US President Donald Trump to “develop a constructive relationship that benefits both the United States and China”. What do you think about the developments? Will China finally form an alliance with Russia or decide to side by Trump in his military adventurism?
Bausman: We believe that China sees its self-interest in siding with Russia because it understands that the aggression against Russia from Washington will later be directed against China if it allows Russia to stand alone against this aggression. Therefore, it is likely that in a global conflict Washington will be aligned against a Russia-China coalition. Only if Washington starts losing this conflict might it offer major concessions or inducements to China to switch sides. Strategic planners in Washington believe that they have a chance to bring China to their side because of economic pressure they can put on China, but we believe China will still prefer the above rationale and will accept economic damage and not switch sides at this early stage of the conflict.
Tasnim: The USS Michigan — a guided-missile submarine — recently arrived in South Korea for what a US defense official described as a show of force amid tensions between the US and North Korea. The tensions skyrocketed after President Trump assumed office in January. The new administration has repeatedly said that it is seriously worried about North Korea’s efforts to develop a nuclear-tipped missile that could hit the US mainland. Pyongyang, however, argues that it needs to be prepared in case of an attack from Washington and its ally Seoul. What do you think about the developments? Would it be possible that Trump launches an offensive on North Korea?
Bausman: Yes, this is possible, but we believe it is unlikely because of the huge North Korean infantry strength on the border with South Korea, with which they would likely invade. Therefore, we believe that this saber-rattling is more for show, designed to distract attention from Trump's domestic political problems and run out the clock on the congressional hearing on Russian influence in the US elections. It has a secondary purpose in putting China on notice that the US is prepared to be aggressive in China's back yard and to use this as a negotiating tactic against China.
Tasnim: In another development, the US Air Force has deployed F-35 Lightning II fighters to Estonia, putting the service’s newest fighter jets even closer to Russia’s doorstep. The stealth fighter jets landed in the Baltic country on Tuesday to take part in training exercises aimed at “deterring” Russia, according to Russian media reports. What is your assessment on the issue, what is Washington trying to signal to Moscow by the move?
Bausman: This is just another in a long series of escalating moves by the US in a build-up to a global military confrontation with Russia which began with the 2008 attack by Georgia.
Tasnim: Recently, Poland welcomed the first US troops in a multinational force being posted across the Baltic region to counter potential threats from Russia. More than 1,100 soldiers - 900 US troops as well as 150 British and 120 Romanians - are to be deployed in Orzysz, about 57km south of Russia's Baltic Sea enclave of Kaliningrad, where Moscow has stationed nuclear-capable missiles and an S-400 air missile defense system. Do you believe that the US and Russia are on road to a final collision? Do you think that the US is beating the drum for World War III?
Bausman: Yes, it is quite clear to many observers in Russia and around the world that the US and Russia are headed for a major military collision, and that it is the US which is pursuing this aggressive course, with Russia doing its best to avoid it. Unless the US changes its course, we believe that this will break out into a major, global military conflict sometime in 2018. As for the troop deployments in the Baltics, these numbers are in fact insignificant and are just symbolic, and so we attribute little importance to them.
